Executive Summary
Eight months have elapsed since the leaders of Ethiopia and Eritrea poured their entire national armies into Tigray, upported by a large but unknown number of Amhara militia and other forces, UAE’s weaponized drones, and a contingent of Somalia’s soldiers with an estimated strength of 4,000 personnel.
To date, the war has unleashed horrific, heartbreaking, and extensive damages to civilians and property unseen anywhere in the world. Yet, the international community—seemingly unaware of the immensity of human suffering—remains reluctant to take decisive action to demand an end to the misery. This reluctance likely stems from the effectiveness of the Abiy government to spread lies, misinformation, and intentionally deceive the world about the true causes of the war and its ultimate aims. Mr. Abiy Ahmed, the Ethiopian prime minister, alleged that Tigray forces attacked his powerful army at the Northern Command (NC-ENDF) on 3 November 2020, and argued that this alleged attack caused him to order the massive offensive a few hours later. Unfortunately, some governments, international organizations, and even news media accepted the narrative at face value. This short paper presents findings of fact about the government’s narrative in an effort to bring the truth out to the front and assist the reader in making a more informed conclusion about the true causes, origins, and intent of the war. The report draws from a variety of reliable sources including the Ethiopian government and independent analyses to reach at the compelling conclusion that the war did not erupt overnight on 4 November 2020, as many were led to believe. Rather, the evidence uncovers that it was not a single or sudden triggering event, but the culmination of many years of deliberate, opportunistic planning by Mr. Abiy, his ally President Isaias Afwerki of Eritrea, and various other proxy collaborators. The war is not a “law enforcement operation” as Mr. Abiy led many to believe. The evidence points to a well-orchestrated and well-rehearsed plan, rooted in what appears to be a deep-seated aversion and hatred towards the people of Tigray, to consolidate power by removing the Tigray regional government (TRG), destroying the TPLF, and a systematic effort to weaken and ultimately annihilate the entire population of Tigray. Shortly after Mr. Abiy was handed the power of prime minister in April 2018, he forged alliances with President Isaias and several other collaborators to devise two schemes for the consolidation of power. The first scheme was to systematically weaken the TRG, the TPLF, and the people of Tigray by means of demonization, trickery, fear, intimidation, execution, imprisoning key leadership, and by dismantling TPLF’s political, economic, and security apparatus. The alliance tried to trick the TPLF into self-destruction by dissolving
the EPRDF. When this trickery failed, the Abiy government tried to remove the TRG from power illegally (by force) using commandos on a secret mission. This included clandestine efforts to identify, infiltrate, and turn disgruntled Tigrayans into agents of influence to sow violence, disorder, and discontent throughout the Tigray region. Such efforts also included the creation and sponsorship of a violent group of youth dissidents to serve as a proxy force to stir trouble and aid in the forceful removal of the TRG.
When Scheme 1 failed to bring the desired outcome, the alliance invoked Scheme 2 which was an all-out war declared on 4 November 2020. Strong evidence supports that Mr. Abiy and Mr. Isaias secretly put in motion Scheme 2 days if not weeks or months before November 4 by mobilizing their armies to encircle Tigray from all directions. A sudden withdrawal of federal troops from Oromia on 1 November 2020 reported by government-owned news media clearly points to the military buildup days before the alleged attack of the NC-ENDF. The size and scope of the military buildup around Tigray also suggests significant planning and preparations occurred well before and leading up to November 4.
According to a reliable source, the Abiy government sent a secret commando mission to Mekelle just hours before the waiting military was ordered to invade and either assassinate or capture the TRG and TPLF leadership. Then it used the ensuing chaos to create the smokescreen (i.e., cover up story) it needed for declaring war. The clandestine mission ultimately failed to assassinate any of the TRG leaders, but Mr. Abiy labeled Tigray’s attempts at selfdefense as an unprovoked attack on his military—subsequently declaring the war
within hours.
This report offers strong evidence, including direct excerpts from speeches by government officials, that the war was meticulously planned years prior to 4 November 2020. One Amhara official, for example, stated that the war started the same night they had finalized preparations in collaboration with Mr. Abiy’s government. Another government official said Mr. Abiy asked Sudan to seal its borders with Tigray prior to declaring the war, a revelation that leaves no doubt that Mr. Abiy planned this war before the alleged NC-ENDF attack. Similar statements and related evidence presented in this report expose the fallacy of the government’s “law-enforcementoperation” narrative. The findings of fact strongly show a pre-planned, conscious, deliberate, and systematic effort to hide the high crimes and atrocities it was about to commit in an effort to consolidate power while avoiding global condemnation. The findings of fact also support that Tigray and its leaders did not launch an unprovoked attack against the NC-ENDF, as many have been led to believe. Rather, they defended themselves against a massive force that surrounded Tigray from all four directions with orders to wreak havoc, assassinate key regional leaders, and annihilate any and all opposition in Tigray.